“During every single day of the Trump administration, I will, very simply, put America first.”
Donald Trump’s return to the White House in 2025 marks the beginning of a new chapter in global politics. For Australia, his leadership is expected to bring both opportunities and challenges. His “America first” policies, evolving trade priorities and approach to global security will significantly shape Australia’s domestic and international interests in the coming years.
Read on to learn how the US election outcome could send waves across the ocean and what that means for us Down Under.
1. Climate change and the environment
Trump’s withdrawal of the U.S. from the Paris Agreement during his first term and his cynicism towards climate science contrast sharply with Australia’s growing focus on renewable energy and environmental commitments.
Under Trump, the U.S. is likely to:
- Deprioritise global climate action.
- Focus on U.S. energy independence and fossil fuels.
- Restrict reliance on politically unstable states for energy supply.
For Australia, this could mean:
- A strain on U.S.-Australia relations in regards to environmental policy.
- A chance to adopt global leadership on climate change initiatives.
- Possibly provide economic opportunities for Australia as a major coal and natural gas exporter.
2. Trade and economics
The US is a major trade partner for Australia, with the Australia-US Free Trade Agreement (AUSFTA) underpinning a close economic relationship since 2005.
Trump’s agenda prioritises domestic economic growth which could present challenges for Australia’s economy. In his previous tenure, he imposed tariffs on allies and rivals alike and withdrew the U.S. from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a major trade pact that Australia championed.
Economically, the U.S. is likely to:
- Pivot towards bilateral trade agreements over multilateral ones. This means favouring individual agreements with one other country rather than including multiple countries. Generally speaking, multilateral agreements are better for global economic welfare.
- Focus on increased tariffs, domestic tax cuts for large corporations and deregulation.
For Australia, this may mean:
- A more bespoke trade agreement with the U.S. – this could be positive or negative for Australia depending on negotiation outcomes.
- Exports become more expensive, competitiveness in the global market decreases and a weaker exchange rate (travel becomes more expensive—you might need to budget carefully for that trendy U.S. trip you were planning).
3. The US-Australia-China love triangle
Do you have two friends who just don’t seem to get along? Australia relies on both China and the U.S. as top trade partners. Unfortunately, these two don’t always see eye-to-eye.
Trump is likely to take some tough stances, including:
- Pressuring Australia to decouple from China economically.
- Reinforcing a U.S. military presence in the Indo-Pacific region.
- Reevaluating U.S. economic and resource contributions to shared defence initiatives.
For Australia, this means:
- A more careful approach to balancing its economic reliance on China with its U.S. alliance.
- Pressure to take a harder line on China could invite economic retaliation.
- The benefit of increased U.S. presence in the Indo-Pacific region – there may be opportunities for joint military exercises, intelligence-sharing and defence technology transfers.
4. Social pressures and domestic tension
It’s no secret that Trump is a polarising figure. His return to power could reignite debates within Australian politics about the country’s relationship with the U.S., its role in the Indo-Pacific and its approach to global issues like climate change and trade.
Australia may see growing calls for greater independence in foreign policy, as Trump’s unpredictable style and transactional diplomacy raise concerns about over-reliance on the U.S.
Donald Trump’s return to the White House in 2025 will have far-reaching implications for Australia. While the U.S.-Australia alliance remains strong, Trump’s policies on trade, defence and climate change will test this partnership. Good luck navigating social media for the next few years!
