You may have heard the term El Niño on the news or on social media when talking about the weather.
But what does it actually mean? And what does it have to do with Australia? In this article, we explain everything you need to know about El Niño and how it can impact Australia’s climate while you’re living, studying and working in the country.
What is El Niño?
According to the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), El Niño is a type of naturally occurring weather pattern known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. It happens when the sea surface temperature in parts of the Pacific Ocean becomes warmer than average, which influences the climate in Australia.
Australia is currently in an El Niño phase. It began developing from around March 2026.
How long does El Niño last?
El Niño can last roughly 6 to 12 months, however, it has lasted up to two years in some rare cases. BOM reports the current El Niño phase will most likely continue until the second half of 2026.
What does El Niño mean for Australia’s climate?
Typical El Niño patterns and past climate
It’s important to remember every El Niño is different. While the country has been in an El Niño phase in the past, it doesn’t always mean the temperature and climate conditions will look exactly the same as they did before.
A typical El Niño event can mean:
- Reduced rainfall
- Warmer and drier temperatures
- Reduced tropical cyclones
- An increased fire danger in some parts of Australia
- Decreased snow depths
Previously, El Niño phases have meant less rain in winter and spring in Australia, hotter temperatures in southern areas and an increased risk of frost because of clearer skies.
What El Niño will look like in Australia in 2026
For this current El Niño phase, BOM is predicting there will be below-average rainfall across southern and eastern Australia. It doesn’t mean there won’t be any rain at all, only that it will be less than average. The forecast from July to September 2026 also shows temperatures will most likely be above average in most areas, except in parts of the north.
BOM advises it’s too early to predict what our summer will look like. However, an El Niño event means there is a risk of extreme temperatures like heatwaves, hotter days, fire warnings and even heavy rainfall and flooding.
The future of Australia’s climate
While El Niño plays an important role in impacting our weather, it is just one factor that contributes to Australia’s climate.
However, with that said, the increased heat in the Pacific Ocean during an El Niño can boost temperatures around the world the following year. Australia has already experienced warmer-than-average days, with 14 of its 15 warmest years on record occurring since 2000. This means we are likely to experience higher temperatures in 2027 and beyond.
How to prepare for El Niño
Being informed about upcoming temperatures and rainfall can help you prepare for an El Niño event. BOM has a handy long-range forecast to help you plan ahead.
This could be as simple as staying hydrated during warmer days and planning indoor events as temperatures get hotter. Reduced rainfall can mean you’re conserving water in your home by checking for leaks in your taps. If there are increased risks of fires, you can prepare your home by clearing any gutters, cleaning up any twigs or loose leaves from around your garden and having a hose handy.
